John Heller, Post-Gazette photos Cherly Karashin of Carnegie gets an autograph yesterday from Freddy Sanchez at the 2007 PirateFest.

By Dejan Kovacevic
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette For all the staged games available at PirateFest, which opened last night at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, there is none called "Guess The Lineup."

If there were, the Pirates' players probably would be first in line.

	Adam LaRoche shows off the Pirates' new alternate uniform. Click photo for larger image. More Coverage: Pirates Notebook: Search for right arm turns to Armas What do you think of the Pirates' new alternate jersey? Vote in our online poll at post-gazette.com/pirates.

"I'm not going to lie: It makes for a really good debate," left fielder Jason Bay said. "I've thought about our order a lot in the past week, and I could probably think about it for another month ... and still come up with something I didn't think of before."

The lineup has become an especially fun topic for its participants since first baseman Adam LaRoche was acquired last week, judging from interviews yesterday at the team's annual media luncheon at PNC Park.

Thing is, there really is no debate.

Manager Jim Tracy is not prepared to fill out his lineup card for April 2 in Houston but, as he confirmed yesterday, he has a fairly firm mental image of it:

The top three still will be Chris Duffy, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. LaRoche will bat cleanup and Bay fifth, though they could be flipped for left-handed opponents. The No. 6 spot will go to Xavier Nady or Ronny Paulino, whoever is hottest. No. 8 will go to Jose Bautista or Jose Castillo, whoever wins an infield job in the spring.

"I like it," Tracy said. "I like what we can do."

As with any manager's lineup, of course, many will see it differently.

The most compelling argument against this one might come from the game's more statistical-minded followers. They will cite evidence -- plenty of it -- that the hitters with the highest on-base percentage should be, essentially, stacked at the top.

And that exposes what they surely would see as the main flaw with this lineup: Wilson has shown to be efficient with contact, bunts and willful groundouts to the right side, all of which can help advance the leadoff man on the basepaths. But he also has a subpar .306 on-base percentage for his career, largely the result of too few walks. That brings early outs, which slows the cycle of offense.

If you go ... What: 17th annual PirateFest. Where: David L. Lawrence Convention Center, Downtown. When: Noon-8 p.m. today, 11 a.m.-4-p.m. tomorrow. Tickets: $10 for adults, $6 for children 12 and under, free for children less than 30 inches in height. Autographs today: Zach Duke, noon-1:30 p.m.; Jose Bautista, 1-2:30 p.m.; Jack Wilson, 3:30-5 p.m.; Adam LaRoche, 4:30-6 p.m.; Sanchez, 5:30-7 p.m.; Snell, 6-7:30 p.m. Q&A sessions: Players and coaches, 2-3 p.m.; Kevin McClatchy, Dave Littlefield and Jim Tracy, 4-5 p.m. Youth clinics: Tracy and Jim Colborn, 2-3 p.m.

Thus, a computer model probably would formulate a lineup of Duffy, Sanchez, Bay and LaRoche at the top, and Wilson at No. 8.

Wilson's take on the matter had a diplomatic tone.

"I have two lineups," he said. "I have one for our manager and one for maybe someone who's not a small-ball type of guy. That second one would have Duffy, Sanchez, Bay and LaRoche at the top. I'm hitting eighth."

So, which would he favor?

"It depends on what Jim Tracy wants me to do. If we're going to be moving guys over, then I'm your man. I'll find a way to move Duffy."

Sanchez's .344 batting average was best in the National League last season, and he had a .378 on-base percentage. Being that he puts the ball in play yet does not have middle-of-the-order power, he might be someone's ideal No. 2.

But Tracy stresses a specific, move-the-runner approach for his No. 2, and he displays no intention of changing that role or the player who fills it.

"Jack's our No. 2 guy," Tracy said. "He was terrific for us in the second half, and I consider him a perfect choice for a very significant spot in our order. It takes a certain type of player, someone we have spent time with, to do it right. Any successful club works hard to develop that guy."

Wilson batted .257 before the All-Star break, .294 afterward.

There is another issue that will not show up on spreadsheets: Sanchez has sacrificed himself when faced with situations common to the prototypical No. 2 hitter. He bunts, hits to the right side and takes more pitches than usual.

And ordering him to change, by all accounts, would be futile.

"That's just Freddy," Tracy said. "He was going for that batting title, and he still was giving himself up no matter what we said. You don't want your batting champion doing that."

"Freddy's going to be Freddy, no matter what you tell him," Wilson said.

"That's 100 percent right," Sanchez acknowledged with a laugh. "I told everybody, even when I was going for the batting title, part of my game is to give myself up with a man on base. That's how I've played my whole life, and I think it's the right way."

And if he bats third?

"If Jack doubles, I'm moving him over for LaRoche."

Bay confessed to wildly fluctuating feelings on all of the above.

"The arguments go all ways," he said. "It makes total sense to me, for example, to have Freddy third, then LaRoche, then me. Right, left, right. But someone else might say, well, what about Freddy second, LaRoche third and me at cleanup? And, to be honest, the first time I heard that one, it sounded like a great idea."

But ...

"Then you've got Freddy bunting and slapping balls to right field."

Bay pointed to Wilson nearby.

"That's how he hits. That's what he's made for."

And yet ...

"If I hit fifth with how often I get on base, including a lot of walks, you waste that down in the order."

A sound point there. Bay's .396 on-base percentage -- fueled by 102 walks -- led the Pirates last season.

"You know what?" he continued. "A lot of this is going to hinge on Duffy, anyway. If the top of the lineup isn't working, things will have to shuffled."

That might be the sharpest point of all. Duffy was a first-half catastrophe with a .194 average compared to .282 after the break.

As for LaRoche and Bay, neither seems to mind who takes cleanup.

"I'm happy anywhere I hit with men on base," LaRoche said.

He was asked if his numbers -- .285 with 32 home runs and 90 RBIs last season in Atlanta -- might be boosted with Bay behind him.

"It never hurts. I had Andruw Jones hit behind me quite a bit with the Braves, and you can tell the difference. When the pitcher sees someone like Andruw or Jason Bay on deck, they know they don't want to put you on."

Bay's view?

"I'll still have some pretty good hitters behind me," he said.

Nady batted .300 for the Pirates after the July trade, and Paulino batted .310 as a rookie.