With 21 Catholic dioceses nationwide awaiting new bishops, it's anyone's guess whether one will be named for Pittsburgh next month or next year.

There are reports that Archbishop Donald W. Wuerl, of Washington, D.C., who left Pittsburgh in May, is urging a speedy appointment, possibly before the U.S. bishops meet Nov. 13.

"There's talk that it will be right before or right after Christmas. Dec. 8 is often a day that bishops are named, and so is Jan. 6," said Francesco Cesareo, dean of the liberal arts college at Duquesne University, who studies Catholic church governance. Those two dates are, respectively, the Feast of the Immaculate Conception and Epiphany.

On the other hand, a Pittsburgh priest who enjoys prognosticating predicts June at the earliest. Of 195 U.S. dioceses, seven are vacant, two for more than 18 months. Another 14 bishops, including two cardinals, are past the retirement age of 75.

"I don't hear anybody saying that there is anything urgent that would push Pittsburgh to the top of the list," said the Rev. Louis Vallone, pastor of St. John of God in McKees Rocks.

"We have no immediate issues, like finances or scandals. And, unlike some other dioceses, our diocesan administrator is a bishop, so we're not backed against the wall for the sacrament of confirmation. Everyone is agreed that Bishop [Paul] Bradley is doing a very creditable job as administrator. So, from the outside, there is nothing that militates for a quick appointment for Pittsburgh," he said.

But Pittsburgh is by far the largest diocese without a full-fledged diocesan bishop.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette previously identified eight bishops who Archbishop Pietro Sambi, papal nuncio to the United States, appears certain to consider as he chooses three names to forward to the Vatican's Congregation for Bishops. They are Bishops Blase Cupich, 57, of Rapid City, S.D.; Kevin Farrell, 59, auxiliary of Washington, D.C.; Joseph Kurtz, 60, of Knoxville, Tenn.; Joseph McFadden, 59, auxiliary of Philadelphia; John Nienstedt, 59, of New Ulm, Minn.; Thomas Paprocki, 54, auxiliary of Chicago; Dennis Schnurr, 58, of Duluth, Minn.; and David Zubik, 57, of Green Bay, Wis.

Most are mentioned for more than one diocese. For instance, Bishop Farrell is considered a strong contender for Dallas, where the bishop is past retirement age.

Before sending names to Rome, the nuncio is supposed to consult widely. Normally, he would receive a report from the administrator of an open diocese on its needs, and would send questionnaires to priests and some laity in key positions. He would ask what they would like to see in a bishop and might run names by them or solicit names.

The nuncio is expected to consult cardinals, other Pennsylvania bishops and bishops with roots in Pittsburgh.

Archbishop Wuerl is expected to have a large say. An open question is how much influence Cardinal Justin Rigali, of Philadelphia, will have. Under Pope John Paul, Cardinal Rigali was considered a kingmaker, but it is unclear how much influence remains under Pope Benedict.

When the nuncio has settled on eight or 10 candidates, he sends the names to the president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops for an assessment. Then the nuncio sends three names to Rome with his recommendations, an assessment of each and copious documentation.

The Congregation for Bishops can ask for other names if its members are not satisfied. They will send three to the pope with their recommendations. He usually selects one of the three, but is free to name someone else.

Experts on the hierarchy say bishops were chosen faster 20 years ago than now. One reason is that the nuncio worked quickly in the 1980s. Another is that background checks are said to have become much more rigorous. Archbishop Sambi has been in that post for six months, so opinions of his work are just beginning to form.

Pope Benedict's U.S. appointments have varied in speed, Dr. Cesareo said. He suspects Youngstown has languished for 18 months because of a conflict over whom to appoint. But Cleveland, a diocese comparable to Pittsburgh, was filled instantly in May.

Cleveland's former bishop had made it clear for years that he wanted to leave as soon as he turned 75. There was also urgency about rewarding Bishop Richard Lennon, the Boston auxiliary who had been administrator there after Cardinal Bernard Law resigned in disgrace.

"I know that people in Cleveland were very surprised at how quickly Bishop [Anthony] Pilla's retirement was accepted and the appointment was made. But it wasn't a surprise," Dr. Cesareo said.

Impressions of the new nuncio have been positive. His English is excellent, and he is viewed as willing to consult far beyond the usual church insiders who speak fluent Italian.

"My sense is that he really tries to learn the local situation as best he can to get a feel for the needs of a particular diocese and to look at the potential candidates carefully," Dr. Cesareo said.

The Rev. Thomas Reese, a Jesuit political scientist who studies the Catholic hierarchy, cited anecdotal reports that Pope Benedict's choices have been older and more pastoral than those Pope John Paul appointed.

"Certainly, people in San Francisco and Washington were pretty pleased with the appointments there," Father Reese said.

"I think John Paul II often looked for people who were going to take on the world, willing to make a big, public fight over things. [Pope Benedict's] people seem to be more consensus makers who are pastoral in their approach. They don't enjoy playing policeman."

The appointments of Salt Lake City, Utah, Bishop George Niederauer to San Francisco and Pittsburgh's Bishop Wuerl to Washington are the most significant U.S. appointments under Pope Benedict. But they are atypical posts, said Richard Gaillardetz, professor of Catholic studies at the University of Toledo, Ohio.

Both require tremendous diplomatic skills because of Washington's political importance and San Francisco's large gay population. So they might not reflect Pope Benedict's usual preferences, he said.

"They were not in-your-face appointments. They were conciliatory appointments," he said.

Dr. Gaillardetz developed a profile of bishops appointed in the last 15 years of Pope John Paul's pontificate. Nearly all had a degree from Rome, support from a powerful mentor, experience in a Vatican office or as rector of a seminary, and no record of criticizing church practice. What he found lacking was a track record as a successful pastor.

Now he is cautiously revising his profile. He was among several experts to cite the December appointment of the Rev. David Raymond Choby, a longtime Nashville, Tenn., pastor who has a canon law degree from the Angelicum University in Rome, as bishop of Nashville. He had served 14 months as administrator after his predecessor moved. He was the second bishop in 169 years to be chosen from within the Nashville diocese.

Before the 1990s, Dr. Gaillardetz said, Pope John Paul's bishops were "pragmatic conservatives."

They didn't challenge tradition but "were open-minded and good listeners. They had a sense of needing to be a pastor to all the people, not just to the pure. I think we lost some of those in the 1990s. They were replaced by people for whom ideological purity trumped the need to be a pastor to all of the flock," he said.

Now, he said, "It's a whole new game under Pope Benedict."