Something surely is amiss with a Major League Baseball team's system when the parent club is younger than its top two affiliates in the minors, as was the case with the Pirates and their mostly journeyman rosters at Class AAA Indianapolis and Class AA Altoona.
That, in and of itself, makes a challenge of evaluating the minor-league season that ended this past weekend for the Pirates' teams. Their top prospects spent most of the summer at Class A or lower, and few things are more unpredictable in sports than 20-something talent in baseball.
Still, the two men most responsible for the system express optimism that their crop will make significant strides and, in the process, eventually restock Indianapolis and Altoona.
"We like the group, and we like where it's headed," general manager Dave Littlefield said. "And the thing to keep in mind is there probably will be very little attrition at the major-league level for the next three to five years, so we're going to be able to pick and choose who we keep at the upper levels of the minors."
"I think you're going to start seeing a lot of prospects again in Indianapolis and Altoona," director of player development Brian Graham said. "All over the diamond, too."
The big three
That includes the top two prospects, catcher Neil Walker and center fielder Andrew McCutchen, each of whom could start with Altoona next season.
Walker, who turns 21 today, missed the first month of the season because of offseason wrist surgery. It took him another month after that to get going with Class A Lynchburg, and he climbed to .284 before his August promotion to Altoona.
He hit two home runs in his first three games with the Curve, then was knocked out for another three weeks by a sinus infection, then batted a team-best .300 in five playoff games.
For the season, Walker batted .271 with five home runs, 22 doubles and 38 RBIs in just 82 games.
"Neil Walker's season was more about the injuries than anything," Graham said. "But I did like what I saw in June and July and, really, any other time he was healthy."
McCutchen, 19, had no such issue. He rarely rested in his first full professional season and wound up with 531 at-bats.
More important, he produced. He batted .291 in 114 games with low Class A Hickory, then improved upon that when he jumped two levels to become the youngest player in Altoona history in August, batting .308 with three home runs in 20 games.
For the season, he batted .294 with 17 home runs and 74 RBIs. He also displayed trademark patience in drawing 50 walks to boost a .359 on-base percentage, this despite a slow start in which, as he acknowledged, he grew weary of pitchers avoiding him and began to hack.
"McCutchen played above expectations, especially from a maturity standpoint," Graham said.
Walker is certain to open 2007 in Altoona. And McCutchen?
"He has a chance, definitely," Graham said.
The other prospect in what might soon be considered a big three for the Pirates is starter Brad Lincoln, the team's top draft pick in June.
Lincoln, 21, barely saw the mound after signing his contract, getting six starts between the Gulf Coast League and Hickory and going 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA. His season was cut short by a strained oblique in August.
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A hard-throwing right-hander, he is seen by some pundits as having the greatest potential of anyone in the Pirates' system.
Asked if his name belongs with those of Walker and McCutchen, Graham replied, "It really does."
Making a push
On a tier just below those three, and perhaps pushing for inclusion, is shortstop Brent Lillibridge.
The Pirates' fourth-round pick in 2005, he shined in his first full professional season with a .305 average, 13 home runs, 71 RBIs, 53 steals in 66 tries, and 87 walks that brought a golden .419 on-base percentage. Maybe most impressive, his performance improved when promoted from Hickory to Lynchburg.
Lillibridge, 23, made a somewhat symbolic appearance with Altoona in the playoffs and might start there next season.
"We're very high on Lillibridge," Littlefield said. "He had an excellent season."
Unlike some shortstops at that level who wind up at different positions because of defensive limitations, Lillibridge, 23, is being projected to stay right where he is.
"His defense definitely projects there," Littlefield said. "I think having him and Brian Bixler behind Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez here, that's the kind of depth you like to develop at an important position."
Bixler, 23, had the best season of the very few prospects in Altoona, putting up a .302 average, eight home runs and 52 RBIs.
Although he made 26 errors, the Pirates view him as strong defensively, too.
"He's the most improved player in the organization," Graham said.
Bixler could be the starting shortstop at Indianapolis, where the Pirates can envision more younger players in the mix.
Brad Eldred, the system's only legitimate power prospect, will be at first base after missing nearly all season because of a broken thumb. But time is ticking for him at age 26 and with much still to prove.
Second baseman Craig Stansberry will be back, too, after batting .243 with 13 home runs in his first Class AAA season. So will center fielder Rajai Davis, whose .283 average and 45 steals earned a promotion to the Pirates. The rotation will have Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Shane Youman, Bryan Bullington and, possibly, Wardell Starling, who went 10-9 with a 2.98 ERA in Altoona.
The bullpen could have Brian Rogers, Juan Perez and Jesse Chavez, all of whom fared well in the two months since being acquired by Littlefield.
The Curve will have, in addition to those mentioned, outfielder Nyjer Morgan after a .304 season and 59 steals, as well as some pitchers with promise: Dave Davidson might be the system's most highly regarded reliever after posting a 2.01 ERA. Another left-hander, starter Josh Shortslef, was limited by injuries but went 6-2 with a 4.45 ERA.
Another pitcher to watch: Todd Redmond, a 21-year-old starter, went 13-6 with a 2.75 ERA for Hickory and could be ready for a leap. He struck out 148 and walked 33.
Power outage
Will those be enough to replenish Indianapolis and Altoona? That remains to be seen.
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| Steve Mellon, Post-Gazette Andrew McCutchen, 19, was the youngest player in Class AA Altoona history. Click photo for larger image. |
But is there any power on the horizon? The picture in that regard seems much clearer, and it is not encouraging.
Outfielder Adam Boeve, expected to provide some pop in Indianapolis, had nine home runs in 454 at-bats. Of Stansberry's 13, only three came in his 60 games at Class AAA.
Other than Eldred, the lone prospect with a profile for power is first baseman Steve Pearce, 23, who had 26 home runs, 98 RBIs and a .273 average at Hickory and Lynchburg.
"Pearce had a very good year," Graham said. "There's no question we don't have a tremendous amount of power in the organization. But power is often the last thing to come with prospects, and we're hoping we can get that from Walker, McCutchen, maybe others."
Littlefield acknowledged the need, but he described it as one that is more widespread than the Pirates' system.
"The two greatest commodities are power arms and power bats. That's been true in the industry for 118 years, and those two things are hard to find," he said. "There's no doubt we want to add that."
Without a trophy
Though team achievements are less important than those of individuals, the Pirates' affiliates did not fare well in the standings.
Of the six North American teams, the only one to reach the playoffs was Altoona at 78-67. The Curve was eliminated in the Eastern League semifinal. Indianapolis was the only other with a winning record at 76-67, missing out on the postseason by losing a one-game tiebreaker.
The Pirates' summer teams in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela each finished with the best record in its respective league, though neither went on to a championship.
"We're very proud of that," director of Latin American scouting Rene Gayo said.
Still, the organization remains miles behind in producing Latin American talent, a trait that -- coupled with a subpar draft in 2002 -- was most responsible for the dearth of prospects in Indianapolis and Altoona. Gayo was named to his post in 2003, before which it did not exist. And, because Latin players can be signed as young as 16, they take much longer to develop.